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☆ Japan not seeking a strong yen but a stable currency, David Roche says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan is not seeking a strong yen but rather aiming for a relatively stable currency, according to veteran investor David Roche. The Japanese yen has been on a roller coaster ride, with the currency breaking past 160 against the greenback last week — steepest decline in more than three decades. "The Japanese are not aiming at a particularly strong yen. Japan could not "possibly speak to have policy that really results in a strong yen unless they tighten monetary policy," Roche said, adding that it would involve raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points and allowing "unsterilized intervention" of the yen. As far as I can see from the statistics, they've [Bank of Japan] done nothing like that," Roche noted.

Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's Organizations: greenback, Independent, Bank of Japan, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan

☆ David Roche: The Japanese aren't aiming for a particularly strong yen
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: The Japanese aren't aiming for a particularly strong yenDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says they're aiming for a "relatively stable" yen.

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent

☆ David Roche: Israeli escalation against Iran is 'baked in the cake'
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: Israeli escalation against Iran is 'baked in the cake'David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses Iran's drone and missile attack on Israel and says "you have all degrees of escalation that are possible, but escalation you will get — there's no doubt about that."

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: Iran, Israel

☆ Israel vows to 'exact a price' after Iran's attack. Here's what analysts expect could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-15 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But Israel will need to strike a delicate balance, he noted, highlighting that "they don't want an overt conflict with Iran." Iran has said the attack on Israel was in response to an Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Damascus, Syria earlier this month. The Islamic regime has accused Israel of the April 1 attack which killed seven Iranian military personnel, including senior commanders. Israel and Iran have been at odds for decades, with Iran funding and supporting groups opposing Israel including Palestinian militant group Hamas. The ongoing conflict in Gaza has often been referred to as a proxy war between Israel and Iran.

Persons: Amir Cohen, Israel, Joe Biden, Ryan Bohl, Bohl, CNBC's, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, Benny Gantz, Amir Saeid Iravani, Bashar al, Assad, David Roche, Roche, Israel's, What's Organizations: Reuters, Middle East, Rane, NBC News, United Nations, Palestinian, Hamas, Yemeni, Independent, CNBC Locations: Gaza, Ashkelon, Israel, Reuters Israel, Iran, North Africa, Damascus, Syria, Tehran, United States

A major U.S. bank and a legacy tech name were the focus of some of Tuesday's biggest analyst calls. The firm upgraded the apparel stock to overweight from neutral, and raised its price target to $31 per share from $26. The firm resumed coverage of the legacy tech company with an overweight rating and a $58 per share price target. He reiterated his $64 price target on the stock, implying upside of 10.7%. Additionally, he sees "greater risk to the achievement of our price target as the Fed rate cutting cycle begin."

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Matthew Boss, — Brian Evans, Goldman Sachs, Molson Coors Goldman Sachs, Molson, Molson Coors, Bonnie Herzog, Bud Light, Brian Evans, Goldman, Mark Delaney, Cisco, Morgan Stanley's, David Rochester, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, Cisco Systems, JPMorgan, Eagle Outfitters JPMorgan, American Eagle Outfitters, Eagle Outfitters, Molson Coors, Molson, TAP, Tesla, Cisco, Wells Locations: U.S, Wells, Americas, EVs, Wells Fargo, 2H24, Rochester

☆ The bottom of interest rate in the new cycle will be much higher: David Roche and Euan Munro
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe bottom of interest rate in the new cycle will be much higher: David Roche and Euan MunroEuan Munro of Newton Investment and David Roche of Independent Strategy discuss the possibility of the Federal Reserve reducing interest rates against the backdrop of high government spending and budget deficits in the United States.

Persons: David Roche, Euan Munro Euan Munro Organizations: Newton Investment, Independent, Federal Reserve Locations: United States

☆ Veteran investor Roche says a rebalancing from the U.S. to Europe is underway and has further to go
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailVeteran investor Roche says a rebalancing from the U.S. to Europe is underway and has further to goVeteran investor David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says Europe is well positioned to capitalize on a cooling off of sky-high U.S. stock valuations.

Persons: Roche, David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: U.S, Europe

☆ David Roche: Market's expectation that AI will revolutionize productivity will 'run out of fizz'
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: Market's expectation that AI will revolutionize productivity will 'run out of fizz'David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says the market expects artificial intelligence to "revolutionize productivity" in the U.S. economy, but that narrative will eventually "run out of fizz."

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: U.S

☆ David Roche discusses Taiwan election results and China relations
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTaiwan's election shows 'absolutely no support' for reunification with China, says David RocheDavid Roche, global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses Taiwan's election results and relations with China.

Persons: David Roche David Roche Organizations: Independent Locations: China

☆ Veteran investor David Roche says the market is getting it wrong on Taiwan's election result
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-15 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen speaks as Lai Ching-te, Taiwan's vice president and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) presidential candidate looks on during a campaign rally ahead of the elections in Taipei, Taiwan, January 11, 2024. Carlos Garcia Rawlins | ReutersTaiwan's election results place the island on a "collision course with China" and the market reaction has been too sanguine, according to veteran investor David Roche. Beijing has already dismissed the outcome of Saturday's elections, which saw the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's Lai Ching-te elected president alongside a split parliamentary vote. The DPP rejects the so-called "One China principle" and advocates a separate and distinct Taiwanese national identity. Xi has repeatedly stated that Taiwan will be reunified with China, and has not ruled out using military force to achieve his goals.

Persons: Tsai Ing, Lai Ching, Democratic Progressive Party's, Carlos Garcia Rawlins, David Roche, Party's Lai Ching, Roche, CNBC's, Lai, Xi Jinping, Xi Organizations: Democratic Progressive, Reuters, Democratic, DPP, Independent, CSI, Chinese Communist Party, Citi, KMT Locations: Taipei, Taiwan, China, Beijing

☆ Fed is 'disconnected' from reality, must cut rates 5 times next year, portfolio manager says
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Shreyashi Sanyal | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Chris Wattie | ReutersThe Federal Reserve needs to cut interest rates at least five times next year to avoid tipping the U.S. economy into a recession, according to portfolio manager Paul Gambles. "I think Fed policy is now so disconnected from economic factors and from reality that you can't make any assumptions about when the Fed is going to wake up and and start smelling the amount of damage that they're actually causing to the economy," Gambles warned. The current U.S. policy rate stands at 5.25%-5.50%, the highest in 22 years. Traders are now pricing in a 25-basis-point cut as early as March 2024, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The perception now being that the U.S. central bank is effectively done raising interest rates.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Paul Gambles, CNBC's, Gambles, Jerome Powell, Powell, Wall, David Roche, Roche Organizations: Reuters, Federal Reserve, MBMG, Traders, Federal, Financial, Labor Locations: U.S

☆ David Roche says U.S. inflation won't reach 2%
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche says U.S. inflation won't reach 2%David Roche of Independent Strategy says it's clear that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, "which means the next move is down."

Persons: David Roche Organizations: U.S . Federal

☆ The U.S. can avoid a recession, David Roche says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. can avoid a recession, David Roche saysDavid Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, says "American households have done nothing but get richer."

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent

☆ India is a ‘slow trundling elephant’ but a viable alternative to China, says veteran investor David Roche
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( Charmaine Jacob | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Veteran investor David Roche said India "is a slow trundling elephant" that still has many hurdles, but is now a viable alternative to China. "I think India stands to benefit from the decline in terms of the attractiveness of foreign direct investment and portfolio flows of China," Roche told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" on Friday. After overtaking China to become the world's most populous nation, India could also leapfrog its neighbor to also become the world's second-largest economy by 2075. "So I think we're looking at a transfer of not only fixed investment by corporations, but portfolio investments out of China and into India," Roche said. "I think one has to look to sound the current levels and a note of caution about that," Roche warned.

Persons: David Roche, " Roche, CNBC's, Roche, Alicia Garcia, Herrero Organizations: China, Investors, Economic, CNBC Locations: India, China, Asia, Natixis

☆ Veteran investor David Roche has a contrarian call on grain prices, says prices will soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Grain prices have been in freefall of late as investors bet on a resurgence of supply from the U.S., Russia and Ukraine — but veteran strategist David Roche disagrees. Contrary to market consensus, Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, expects a 13-15% annual increase in wheat prices over the next two years. His comments come as wheat prices remain down around 29% year-to-date and at their lowest levels since September 2020, with short positions — bets that prices will fall — recently hitting a three-month high, according to a report from Independent Strategy. Corn prices are also trading around three-year lows while soybeans recently notched a four-year low. Meanwhile Russia, the world's largest grain exporter, has also produced large harvests which analysts expect to get through export blockades.

Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, we've Organizations: Independent, El Nino, U.S . Department of Agriculture Locations: Kramatorsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, U.S, Russia, Mississippi

☆ David Roche on Japan's yield curve control policy
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDavid Roche: Japan conducts policy like a 'tea ceremony', exit from yield curve control 'overdue'David Roche of Independent Strategy shares his view on Japan's monetary policy and outlook on Yen.

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent Strategy Locations: Japan

☆ Global stock markets have been buoyed by 'stupid' people ignoring China and Russia risks, veteran investor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The veteran investor highlighted key economic threats to global equities including high interest rates and China's slowdown. The Independent Strategy president highlighted key risks to global output, including a slowdown in China, Russia's sanction-hit economy, and high inflation across the West. They are related," Roche said during a recent interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe." On China, Roche stressed risks related to the country's floundering property sector. "Much longer higher interest rates means that they actually have to squeeze profit margins in order to get inflation figures to come down," he said.

Persons: Stocks, David Roche, Roche Organizations: Service, Global, Independent, ., Equity, Federal Reserve, Federal, Fed, America Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing

☆ 'People are stupid': Strategist sees big downside as stocks ignore global crises — and names what to own
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Despite ongoing economic crises around the world, global stock markets have remained resilient so far this year. David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy , said equity markets were still relatively buoyant "because people are stupid" and overly complacent. They are related," Roche told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday. The strategist suggested owning 30-year U.S. Treasurys , which were trading with a yield of 4.35% Friday. Earlier this month, billionaire investor Bill Ackman said he was betting against 30-year U.S. Treasurys in "a world with persistent 3% inflation."

Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, Vladimir Putin's, " Roche, I'm, Bill Ackman Organizations: Independent, Equity, JPMorgan, America, Pershing, Capital Management Locations: China, Russia, Beijing, Wall Street, China's, Moscow, Russian, West

☆ China's economy is flailing. Here's how its problems could spill into global markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-19 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

China's economy is facing headwinds ranging from an unstable property market to weak consumer demand. Experts told Insider that a worsening scenario in China bodes poorly for global markets and other economies like the US. "As its economy continues facing downward pressures, its growth momentum might slow down further, in turn exacerbating the already significant pressures that the global economy is facing." One way this is already being felt is in the softening of Chinese demand, which has led to a sharp drop in trade. And as the housing crisis deepens, it will become harder to China to right the ship, creating a lasting drag on future global growth.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Evergrande, Alfredo Montufar, Helu, Keith Hartley, Hartley, Noah Sheidlower, Dexter Roberts, David Roche, they're, Roche Organizations: Service, Privacy, China, Country Garden Holdings, China Center, Conference Board, Federal Reserve, Atlantic Council, Housing, Independent, CNBC Locations: China, Wall, Silicon, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Stocks are under pressure from Treasury yields
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on July 25, 2023, in New York City. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.9%, weighed down by industrials and technology stocks. Chinese countermeasuresSeparately, China's Ministry of Commerce said it might respond to the Biden administration's executive order restricting U.S. investment in sensitive Chinese technology. [PRO] Surprise social stock pickEvercore ISI's Mark Mahaney is famous for his analysis of technology stocks.

Persons: David Roche, it's, Roche, Shu Jueting, Bitcoin, Sylvia Jablonski, Mark Mahaney Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, CNBC, Treasury, China's Ministry of Commerce, Biden Locations: New York City, Norway's, Defiance

☆ China's economic model is 'washed up on the beach,' says veteran investor David Roche
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

China's economic model is "washed up on the beach" and "not going to take off again," which will have a big impact on global markets, says veteran investor David Roche. Despite a remarkable rally in stock markets so far this year, concerns have been growing over the potential ripple effect of a prolonged slowdown in China. China has experienced meteoric growth that outpaced developed countries over the past two decades, overtaking Japan as the world's second-largest economy. However, many economists now see a longer structural downward trend amid diminishing contributions from property and manufacturing — the traditional pillars of China's rapid economic expansion. "The Chinese model is clearly washed up on the beach with a huge number of legacy holes in it, and it's not going to take off again," Roche said.

Persons: David Roche, Roche, CNBC's, it's, " Roche Organizations: People's Bank of, Communist Party, World Bank, Independent, Embassy Locations: Beijing, China, People's Bank of China, Japan, London

☆ China's economic model is 'washed up on the beach' and it's not going to bounce back, veteran investor says
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Veteran investor David Roche told CNBC that China's economic model is "washed up on the beach." He doesn't anticipate it to bounce back as it deals with deflation, slowing growth, and other economic snags. He noted that China's economy has a "huge number of legacy holes in it." Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. The troubled property market helps explain China's weak second-quarter GDP, which came in below expectations at 6.3%.

Persons: David Roche, it's, " Roche, CNBC's, they're, Roche Organizations: CNBC, Service, Independent, National Bureau of Statistics, People's Bank of, Country Garden Holdings Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, People's Bank of China

☆ Independent Strategy: It's going to be very hard to get U.S. inflation rates down to 2%
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndependent Strategy: It's going to be very hard to get U.S. inflation rates down to 2%David Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, discusses the latest Fed minutes, and why more rate hikes are inevitable.

Persons: David Roche Organizations: Independent

☆ Ukraine seeks to lure global firms from Moscow as Danone and Carlsberg assets seized
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Alexander Demianchuk | RussiaUkraine is urging global companies to divest from Russia and relocate to its war-stricken neighbor, as Moscow continues to seize the assets of foreign companies. Sergiy Tsivkach is the CEO of UkraineInvest, a government agency tasked with attracting foreign direct investment to Ukraine and promoting the country as a secure long-term investment option for international business. "It is important to show that the aggressor cannot receive any investments or any operations from international companies." 28, 2022 that it would seek a full disposal of its business in Russia, and signed an agreement on Jun. 'Your war investment could be wiped out'Ukraine's allies pledged nearly $60 billion toward the country's recovery and reconstruction at the Ukraine Recovery Conference in London in June.

Persons: Alexander Demianchuk, Vladimir Putin, Danone, Tsivkach, Carlsberg, UkraineInvest, David Roche Organizations: Carlsberg, CNBC, videolink, Yale School of Management, Danone, Baltika Breweries, Danone Russia, Russian Federal Agency, Rosimushchestvo, Mar, Initiative, Conference, Independent, NATO Locations: Carlsberg, St . Petersburg, Russia, Russia Ukraine, Moscow, Russian, Ukraine, Uniper, Kyiv, London

☆ Strategist David Roche says we'll avoid a global recession, central banks will 'change the goalposts'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The global economy will likely avoid a recession and central banks will need to "change the goalposts" on inflation, according to veteran strategist David Roche. With high inflation proving sticky across many major economies, central banks have tightened monetary policy aggressively over the past 18 months. Further hikes to interest rates are expected later this year amid tight labor markets and resilient economic activity. "Will that produce deflation, will that produce recession? The year-over-year inflation rate dropped from 4% in May to 3% in June, largely due to falling energy and transportation prices, while core inflation — which excludes volatile food and energy costs — slowed to increase by just 0.2% month-on-month.

Persons: David Roche, It's, Roche Organizations: U.S . Federal Locations: Ukraine

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